TICK TOCK THE CLIMATE CLOCK – PART 48: NO, THE KIDS ARE NOT ALL RIGHT

It comes as no surprise that a recent study published in the Lancet reveals that climate change can be bad for the mental health and well being of young people.  I’ll get to the study below, but first, what’s trending in recent climate news to generate climate dysphoria?

SOUTH AMERICA IS EXPERIENCING A RECORD DROUGHT AND THE AMAZON IS DRYING UP.

According to this story from the New York Times:

A record-breaking drought that is well into its second year is punishing much of South America, including the Amazon rainforest….

Long sections of the Amazon River have turned into dry, brown beaches, and officials are dredging sections to make them deeper.

The drought is fueled by two trends linked to climate change, said Carlos Nobre, a Brazilian scientist. First, a particularly strong El Niño weather pattern parched the region.

While El Niños, a natural climate occurrence linked to warmer conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, have caused droughts for millions of years, stronger El Niños have become more frequent as the planet warms.

Second, the temperature in the North Atlantic has hit a new high, contributing to the drier conditions.

Scientists [note] the larger trend: Temperatures are rising, reshaping life across the region.

FINLAND’S ARBOREAL FORESTS ARE NOW A NET CONTRIBUTOR TO GLOBAL WARMING.

As reported in this story from the Guardian:

For decades, [Finland’s] forests and peatlands had reliably removed more carbon from the atmosphere than they released. But from about 2010, the amount the land absorbed started to decline, slowly at first, then rapidly. By 2018, Finland’s land sink – the phrase scientists use to describe something that absorbs more carbon than it releases – had vanished.

Its forest sink has declined about 90% from 2009 to 2022, with the rest of the decline fuelled by increased emissions from soil and peat. In 2021-22, Finland’s land sector was a net contributor to global heating.

The impact on Finland’s overall climate progress is dramatic: despite cutting emissions by 43% across all other sectors, its net emissions are at about the same level as the early 1990s. It is as if nothing has happened for 30 years.

Across the EU, the amount of carbon absorbed by its land each year fell by about a third between 2010 and 2022, according to the latest research, endangering the continent’s climate target.

JULY 22, 2024, WAS THE HOTTEST DAY IN RECORDED HUMAN HISTORY.

As reported by the New York Times:

[July 22, 2024] became the hottest day in modern history, with an average global temperature of 17.16 Celsius or 62.88 Fahrenheit.

But what stunned scientists wasn’t the temperature of the hottest day ever recorded, which was up slightly from last year, it was how much hotter than usual it’s been during the rest of the year, between these two summer peaks. Instead of returning to something close to normal, average global surface temperatures have remained stubbornly high for more than a year now.

“What is truly staggering is how large the difference is between the temperature of the last 13 months and the previous temperature records,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of Copernicus. “We are now in truly uncharted territory, and as the climate keeps warming, we are bound to see new records being broken in future months and years.”

HURRICANE HELENE KILLED AT LEAST 224.

Hurricane Helene struck the southeastern United States more than three weeks ago, but its effects are still being felt in North Carolina, in particular, and will be for years.  Here are current updates on damage in North Carolina, reported by USA Today and the New York Times:

Helene's death toll stands at 224; a total of 96 storm-related deaths were reported in North Carolina alone. The toll also includes 49 deaths in South Carolina, 33 in Georgia, 27 in Florida, 17 in Tennessee and 2 in Virginia.

More than 20 people are still missing in North Carolina.

Hundreds of roads remain closed. Dozens of parks are shuttered. At least 7,300 homes and businesses were without power as of [October 22].

Officials in Asheville said about 95% of the city's water system is running non-potable water.

Temporary debris processing sites [expected to operate for at least a year in Buncombe County and Asheville] were opened to deal with the 10 million cubic yards of wreckage [including hazardous waste] generated by Helene and quickly galvanized nearby residents.

“This will take billions of dollars and years of bipartisan focus from everyone working together to make it happen,” [North Carolina Governor Roy] Cooper said of the recovery effort.

SEVERE FLOODS WORLDWIDE IN OCTOBER

Western United States, from CNN:

At least two people have died and hundreds have been rescued in Roswell, New Mexico, according to the New Mexico State Police, after extreme overnight rainfall brought severe flooding, stranding motorists and sweeping away cars.

West and Central Africa, from Relief Web:

As of 16 October, more than 1 million people have been internally displaced due to flooding in eleven countries, notably Nigeria, Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Liberia, Mali, and the Central African Republic.

Central France, from Euronews:

Clean-up operations are under way after two days of torrential rain caused the worst flooding central France has seen in 40 years.

Vietnam, from Deutsche Welle:

Earlier this month, Typhoon Yagi hit Vietnam, leaving nearly 300 people dead and destroying property worth $1.6 billion (€1.4 billion).

However, before the country could recover from Yagi, it was hit by yet another intense storm last week, bringing torrential rainfall and causing the rivers to swell to dangerous levels.

Vietnam is prone to floods but scientists say climate change leads to more extreme weather patterns.

ACTIVE FIRES, SEPTEMBER 2024

From NASA:

Globally, fire plays a major role in Earth's carbon cycle by releasing carbon into the air, and by consuming trees that would otherwise absorb carbon from the air during photosynthesis. These maps show the locations of actively burning fires around the world [in September 2024], detected by instruments aboard NASA satellites.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CLIMATE PROGRESS IN 2024

According to the 2024 UN's Emissions Gap Report :

One year after world leaders made a landmark promise to move away from fossil fuels, countries have essentially made no progress in cutting emissions and tackling global warming.

Global greenhouse gas emissions soared to a record 57 gigatons last year and are not on track to decline much, if at all, this decade, the report found. Collectively, nations have been so slow to curtail their use of oil, gas and coal that it now looks unlikely that countries will be able to limit global warming to the levels they agreed to under the 2015 Paris climate agreement.

Devastating droughts, arboreal forest decimation, record heatwaves, unprecedented hurricanes, catastrophic floods, and apocalyptic fires—and NO PROGRESS on reducing greenhouse gas emissions over the last 12 months and likely none to come in this decade. Just more thumb twiddling.

These are the headlines that beat the drum that drives climate news.  Are the reports sensationalized and exaggerated by the news media to push sales?  Are all of the data and underlying studies scientifically sound and peer reviewed?  Are these stories over-weighted toward doom and gloom and under weighted toward advances in climate adaptation?  Are the stories unequivocally correct in attributing a cause of these natural disasters to man-made climate change, specifically the use of fossil fuels? 

I don’t know the answer to these questions, but regardless of whether the stories are hyped or the science underlying the reports is imperfect, the climate events themselves—droughts, floods, fires, hurricanes—indisputably occurred and they were experienced by people, including young people, either personally or virtually.  Which brings me to the Lancet study I mentioned at the outset. 

THE LANCET STUDY

The study asked young people in the US between the ages of 16 and 25 whether they had experienced anxiety about climate change.  About 20% of the respondents were between 16 and 17, and about 80% were between 18 and 25—voting age.  Here is a summary of the findings:

• ·       85% of all respondents said they were worried about climate change.

  ·       Almost 60% of those “worried” respondents were either very or extremely worried. 

  ·       “Climate emotions” were described as feelings of powerlessness, anxiety, fear, sadness, and anger. 

  ·       About 40% self-reported negative impacts on their mental health.

  ·       More than 1/3 said climate change negatively affects their daily life, including their ability to focus on work or school, eat and sleep, have fun, and enjoy friendships and other relationships.

  ·       Almost 60% questioned whether it’s worth putting effort into their studies or careers, given climate change. 

  ·       52% said climate change makes them question whether to have children.

  ·       89.4% blamed corporations and industries, and 86% blamed the US and other wealthy governments, for climate change.

  ·       75% want governments to collaborate to prevent the worst impacts of climate change.

  ·       76.6% want corporations and industries to make major reductions in their contributions to climate change.

  ·       74.7% want schools and universities to provide education about climate change and opportunities for discussion and support of students' concerns. 

  ·       Almost 73% were likely to vote for political candidates who support aggressive policies to reduce climate change.

  ·       Political party identification as Democrat or as Independent or Other (vs Republican) was also significantly associated with stronger endorsement of distress and desire and plans for action, although a majority of self-identified Republicans reported at least moderate distress.

   

In sum, the Lancet report indicates that 85% of young Americans suffer from some degree of climate anxiety that impacts their daily lives and their plans for a career and family.  They hold corporations and industry responsible for greenhouse gas emissions, and they blame government(s) for having done little or nothing to rein in those responsible. 

As concerning as these statistics are, there is a positive lurking in the negative survey data:  almost ¾ of respondents seem not to have lost all faith in the political process and they are inclined to support candidates who run on climate policies.  But neither presidential candidate in 2024 has tapped into this voter pool; neither has made climate a campaign centerpiece, or even emphasized the issue.  Indeed, they have barely mentioned it. 

Vice President Harris referred to young people’s concerns about “the planet” only in passing in her closing argument at the Ellipse.  Her website lists “Low Energy Costs and Tackling the Climate Crisis” as number 10 out of 11 issues, suggesting that climate is nowhere near the top of her agenda.  Her website states her climate policy objectives in quite general terms:

As Attorney General, Kamala Harris won tens of millions in settlements against Big Oil and held polluters accountable. As Vice President, she cast the tie-breaking vote to pass the Inflation Reduction Act, the largest investment in climate action in history. This historic work is lowering household energy costs, creating hundreds of thousands of high-quality clean energy jobs, and building a thriving clean energy economy, all while ensuring America’s energy security and independence with record energy production. As President, she will unite Americans to tackle the climate crisis as she builds on this historic work, advances environmental justice, protects public lands and public health, increases resilience to climate disasters, lowers household energy costs, creates millions of new jobs, and continues to hold polluters accountable to secure clean air and water for all. As the Vice President said at the international climate conference, COP28, she knows that meeting this global challenge will require global cooperation and she is committed to continuing and building upon the United States’ international climate leadership. She and Governor Walz will always fight for the freedom to breathe clean air, drink clean water, and live free from the pollution that fuels the climate crisis. 

Former President Trump, on the other hand, has made it abundantly clear that he believes climate change is not only a hoax, but an inconvenient impediment to economic growth.  Proving his point, he urged oil executives dining at Mar-a-Lago last summer to contribute $1 billion to his race, promising them at least that much in savings after he kills regulations affecting their industry.   

So where does that leave young voters whose mental health and sense of well being are negatively affected by climate change?  It leaves them, as Professor Michael Oppenheimer, a climate scientist at Princeton, said “a bit in the soup”:

If we started 30 years ago when a lot of scientists were telling us the fact that the Earth was warming and that human beings appeared to be responsible, we’d be in a lot better position than we are today. Now, we can’t afford to slow down at all, we have to speed up.

Harris doesn’t seem to be in a great hurry, and Trump is immovable. Our generation failed these young people 30, 40 years ago.  And we are failing them again.  Small wonder the kids are not all right.

Keep it real!

Marilyn